Housing data at the middle of the year show strong regional growth in sub-markets | Companies


It’s safe to say that we’ve just completed six months like no other in local real estate history. A look at some of the data from the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors (NETAR) semi-annual update confirms this.

Here are some regional highlights:

  • In the first six months of the year, sales increased by 21.3% to 4,575 deals.
  • The average sales price of $ 231,475 rewarded sellers $ 44,502 per sale, more than in the first six months of last year. That is an increase of 23.8%.
  • The region had an average population of 1.5 months for the period. This is expected to increase as the fall and winter buy and sell seasons begin. June was the first month since November last year in which the number of new registrations was higher than the accepted contracts. Inventories are expected to remain low for the remainder of the year and through 2022.
  • Houses were selling faster than ever. By the middle of the year, the typical house was selling three weeks faster than last year.

A quick drill-down to the half-yearly data of the local submarkets offers a more differentiated measurement of the market performance. Here are a few examples:

  • Four markets outperformed the regional sales growth rate. It was Rogersville, Elizabethton, Jonesborough, and Gray.
  • Seven had a sales price growth rate that was better than the regional growth rate. These included: Church Hill, Blountville, Rogersville, Bristol, Greeneville, Elizabethton, and Gray.

Are you starting to notice a pattern?

The smaller markets continued the strong replenishment they started last year. All the signs suggest that there will be more of them for at least the last half of this year. One of their biggest challenges will be the persistent shortage of inventory.

It also looks like the days with mortgage rates below 3% for the fall and winter seasons may be a thing of the past. According to the current forecast, they will average 3.5% by the end of the year. That’s still a respectable bargain compared to the market’s historical average of 7.5%.

Tighter lending standards and limited inventory will continue to put pressure on prices. Nevertheless, slightly lower growth than in the first half of the year is expected.

The higher prices will continue to drive some buyers out of the market, but that doesn’t mean the region is about to face an affordability crisis. Average local workers can handle the main homeownership costs based on lender standards, but some markets have gone in the wrong direction while the housing market continues to boom.

Still, a buyer with good credit, a solid down payment, and a debt-to-income ratio of no more than 28% across the region has the purchasing power required for a mid-price home. The challenge is the availability of stocks in the affordable range.

An increase in the number of owners who suspect the market has peaked or is about to peak will move on to making money and listing their homes. This will lead to a certain relief of the inventory. So are the additions from new builders as the price of lumber and materials moderates. This is important because only two sub-markets had an average of 1.5 months in stock in the first half of the year.

The mid-year regional and submarket drilldowns show that the Tri-Cities region is on the way to another record year of growth.

For more information, including upcoming sales, trending reports and regional market analysis, please visit www.netar.us.

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